A-share is A cyclical market where there is a bear and there is a bull market after every bear market. If all the big and small bull and bear markets are counted out, then A shares have experienced a total of nine bull and bear markets in 29 years.
1) The Xiong Niu market of A-shares for 9 times in 29 years are:
The first bull market: December 19, 1990 to May 26, 1992
The first bear market: May 26, 1992 - November 17, 1992
The Second bull market: November 17, 1992 - February 16, 1993
The Second Bear Market: February 16, 1993 to July 29, 1994
The third bull market: July 29, 1994 - September 13, 1994
The Third Bear market: September 13, 1994 - May 17, 1995
The fourth bull market: May 18, 1995 - May 22, 1995
The fourth Bear market: May 22, 1995 to January 19, 1996
The fifth bull market: January 19, 1996 - May 12, 1997
The fifth Bear market: May 12, 1997 to May 18, 1999
The sixth bull market: May 19, 1999 to June 14, 2001
The sixth Bear market: June 14, 2001 to June 6, 2005
The seventh bull market: June 6, 2005 to October 16, 2007
The Seventh Bear market: October 16, 2007 to October 28, 2008
The eighth bull market: October 29, 2008 to August 4, 2009
The eighth bear market: August 5, 2009 to July 21, 2014
The ninth bull market: July 22, 2014 to June 12, 2015
The Ninth Bear market: June 12, 2015 to present
Of course, these 9 bull bear markets actually contain most of the \"large level rebound\
2) The four major A-share Xiong Niu markets in 29 years are:
The first round from the Shanghai index opened, from 100 points to 1429 points;
The second round of full bull bear market, 325 points of the large level bear market rose to 2245 points of the big bull market;
The third round of the complete bull bear market, the 998 points of the large level bear market rose to 6124 points of the big bull market;
The fourth round of complete bull bear market, 1849 points of the large level bear market rose to 5178 points of the big bull market;
At present, the fifth round of bear market has begun, from 5178 points fell 2440 points, the future bull market......
3) How long have these major bull markets in history lasted?
The first bull market started at 100 points in 1991 and rose to 1429 points in about a year;
The second wave of 325 points of the big bull market started, to the end of the big bull market of 2245 points, A total of about 7 years, which is also the longest bull market in the history of A shares;
The third wave of the bull market started from 998 points and rose all the way to 6124 points, which took nearly two and a half years;
The fourth wave of the bull market started from 1849 points, rose to 5178 points, took 2 years;
The fifth round of the bull market, which started at 2440, has not finished.......
The A-share market has experienced five bull markets since 1991.
Several of the bull market A rose more than 200%, including the 2007 super bull market in 550 trading days rose more than 6 times.
4) How do individual stocks perform in bull markets?
I looked at the performance of individual stocks in the two bull markets in the last 10 years as a data reference:
The rise span of individual stocks in each bull market is calculated according to the data
From 998 in 2005 to 6124 in 2007, there were 1288 stocks that rose more than 100%, accounting for 88% of the 1,471 listed companies!
From 998 in 2005 to 6124 in 2007, the stocks that rose more than 300% were as high as 949! 65% of the 1,471 listed companies at the time!
From 998 in 2005 to 6124 in 2007, the number of stocks that rose more than 500% was as high as 670! That's 46% of the 1,471 listed companies at the time!
From 998 in 2005 to 6124 in 2007, there were 323 stocks that rose more than 1000%! 22% of the 1,471 listed companies at the time!
In December 2012, the GEM started at 585 points, and ended at 5178 points in Shanghai in 2015, with the number of stocks rising more than 100% reaching 2,437, accounting for 89% of 2,744 listed companies! That's up 1% from 88% in 2007!
In December 2012, the GEM started at 585 points, and ended at 5178 points in Shanghai in 2015, and the number of stocks with an increase of more than 500% reached 422, accounting for 15% of 2744 listed companies!
5) In a bull market, where are big stocks most likely to appear?
Ten times the shares produced in each bull market are concentrated in companies newly listed since the peak of the previous bull market.
1) Ten times of the cattle stocks in 1999-2001 were concentrated in the secondary new stocks listed after the end of the previous round of 1996-1997 bull market;
2) Ten times the stocks in the bull market of 2005-2007 were concentrated in the secondary stocks listed after the end of the previous bull market of 1999-2001;
3) Ten times the stocks in the bull market from 2013 to 2015 were listed after 2010, and there was A rise in A-shares around 2010 (although it did not reach the status of bull stocks).
Then calculated in this way, if 2020-2021 is the next wave of bull market, then the new shares listed in 2017-2018 are more likely to appear 10 times larger stocks!
The industry in each bull market:
In the bull market of 1996-1997, ten times the stock was mainly in the light industry;
During the 2005-2007 bull market, tenfold shares were in industries dominated by heavy industry;
During the 2013-2015 bull market, ten times the stocks were in industries dominated by information technology.
At present, in the transition stage from industrial maturity to mass consumption, industrial upgrading and consumption upgrading are key clues to find growth opportunities. In the next bull market at 2440 points, 5G, technology, and large consumption may be the industry where the future bull stocks are located.
< br \/ >
6) The starting characteristics of a bull market!
From the perspective of P\/E ratio and P\/B ratio, the starting characteristics of the bull market
On January 18, 1996, when the Shanghai Composite Index was 512 points, the average price-earnings ratio was about 19.44 times, the average price-book ratio was about 2.44 times, and then rose to the second historical high of 2245 points on June 14, 2001.
On May 24, 2005, after the death of the Shanghai Composite Index of 998 points, the average price-earnings ratio was about 15.87 times, the average price-book ratio was about 1.7 times, and then it soared to the third all-time high of 6124 points on October 16, 2007.
On October 27, 2008, the Shanghai Composite Index was 1664 points, with an average price-earnings ratio of about 14.24 times and an average price-to-book ratio of about 1.95 times, and then rose slightly to 3478 points on August 4, 2009.
On June 25, 2013, the Shanghai Composite Index was 1849 points, with an average price-earnings ratio of about 10.16 times and an average price-to-book ratio of about 1.35 times, and then rose sharply to 5178 points on June 12, 2015.
When the A-share is near 2440 points, the price-earnings ratio of A-share is 12.48 times, ranking 305th in the historical month, and is in the quantile position of 91.04% of historical data; The price-to-book ratio is about 1.26 times, falling below the lowest point of all major bear markets in history, becoming the lowest position in 29 years!
From the perspective of policy bottom and market bottom, the starting characteristics of a bull market:
Historical data, from the policy bottom to the market bottom, from the policy bottom to the bull market distance
In 2005, stamp duty was reduced, the policy bottom was 1187 points, the market bottom was 998 points, and the subsequent bull market rose to 6124 points!
In 2008, the unilateral levy of stamp duty, and several interest rate cuts and reductions in the reserve ratio, the policy bottom of 1895, the market bottom of 1664 before the official bottom success, the subsequent bull market rose to 3478 points!
In 2012, the IPO was suspended, the QFII share was expanded, and the restrictions on the establishment of public funds were relaxed. The policy bottom was 1949, the market bottom was 1849, and the subsequent bull market rose to 5178 points!
In 2018, the state rescue of the market is imminent, in order to avoid a liquidity crisis and prevent the risk of equity pledge, the policy bottom of 2449 points was established, and soon, the market bottom of 2440 points is also ready, and then entered the road to a bull market.
finally sum up
In fact, we can find that although there are many uncertainties and greater risks in A-shares, there are certain certainties. That is, for A-shares, every large-level bear market will be followed by A large-level bull market, which is the so-called certainty of A-shares.
Good investors can base their investments on such certainty. As Lin Yuan says, \"My secret to investing is not only certainty, but certainty!!\"
A good investor can anticipate what might happen in the future, but not necessarily know when. Focus on the \"what,\" not the \"when.\" If the \"what\" judgment is correct, then there is no need to worry too much about the \"when\".
Bull markets blow bubbles, bear markets squeeze bubbles; Sooner or later the bubble will burst, the bubble will eventually squeeze clean, repeat. But no matter what the market is doing, identifying the stock you know will make money and holding it firmly will win the day. A stock may rise only 10% of the time, and the remaining 90% of the time it is either correcting or falling. It would only be sad if you owned the stock for 90% of the time and sold out before the last 10% because you couldn't stand the 'long grind.'
? Like and follow me? Learn more about finance and the real logic behind investing. Thank you for your support, a comment, welcome criticism and correction.
Strictly speaking, there is no real bull market yet.
01, What is a bull market
Generally speaking, the whole stock market is rising, and all major indexes are rising at the same time, and the amplitude is not small, we call this a bull market.
But in the strict sense, this may not be the definition of a bull market, a normal bull market should add time requirements.
If a stock usually fluctuates within the range of three or five dollars, in a certain year or two, it rises particularly high, rising to six or seven dollars, or even rising to more than ten dollars, but after those two years, it quickly falls back to five dollars, would someone call this stock a bull stock?
Obviously not, if the stock had occasionally gone up every few years, we might call it a monster stock.
Combined with this statement, we don't have a bull market, but we do have a demon market.
02, several so-called bull markets
In the middle of 2005, the stock market once fell through 1000 points, when everyone was very disappointed, I did not expect this to become the lowest point of the stage, and then because of the stock market reform, the stock market slowly rose, and in the process of rising constantly questioned, that there may be a callback at any time, but I did not expect that there were 6124 points later, which is the highest point that can not be surpassed so far.
So this is a bull market that everybody agrees with.
The other was started in 2014, and it was not until June 2015 that the Shanghai Stock Index reached 5000 points again. This time, because many people raised leverage, the stock market rose faster and more crazy. Different from the last time, many people predicted that the bull market this time would continue to rise to 10,000 points. In short, everyone thinks that the last 6124 points must be able to surpass, and then there is a continuous thousand shares that have never been seen, and the stock market slowly returned to below 3000 points.
This is another bull market that everyone agrees on.
03, can make money is a bull market
In fact, rising stages appear from time to time, some months, some close to a year, those are not bull market?
If the time of rise is short, we are not a bull market, like 2007 and 2015, in fact, the time is not long, that is, one or two years, it is reasonable to say that these are not bull markets, otherwise it is just the pot calling the kettle black.
But the investors are too difficult, if this is not a bull market, it is not a bull market, there is no expectation of stocks, so many people are still willing to put some of the market rise stage called bull market.
However, I think the bull market bear market is not meaningful, the key is to make money, if the bear market can also make money, it will always bear market, we may not be called.
\"Money to speak clearly\
Thank you. I'm Brother Shin
< br \/ >
In December 1990, the Shanghai Stock Exchange officially opened, marking the establishment of China's stock market.
< br \/ >
The following letter brother to introduce our country stock market a total of several bull markets:
< br \/ >
< br \/ >
1. The first time: 1990.12-1992.5 96-1429
< br \/ >
At that time, there were only eight stocks, the legendary \"old eight stocks\". However, at that time, the regulatory layer took administrative measures to excessive intervention in the stock market, and the trading system implemented the 0.5% ceiling limit, and the limit remained at 5%.
< br \/ >
On May 21, 1992, the stock trading price limit of the Shanghai Stock Exchange was fully lifted, and the stock soared, and the Shanghai Composite Index soared from the initial 96.05 points to 1429 points. This is the first bull market for A-shares.
< br \/ >
2, the second time: 1992.11-1993.2 386-1558 points
< br \/ >
On November 17, 1992, Shanghai Lianong Co., Ltd. was listed, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell to 386.85 points and closed at 393.52 points. After that, it closed at 1558.95 on February 16, 1993, an increase of 296.16%. For the early investors, big ups and downs were life.
< br \/ >
3. The third time: 1994.8-1994.9 325-1062 points
< br \/ >
After the expansion of the stock market in 1993, the stock market was depressed. In 1994, the management introduced three major rescue policies: suspending the issuance and listing of new shares within this year; Strictly control the scale of rights issue of listed companies; We will take measures to expand the scope of funds entering the market. In just one month, the stock index rose from 325 to 1,052, an increase of 323%.
< br \/ >
4, the fourth time: 1995.5-1995.5 582-926 points
< br \/ >
This bull market is only three trading days, which is the shortest bull market in the history of A-shares. On the afternoon of May 17, the CSRC announced the closure of the national bond futures, affected by the news, the stock market began to surge on May 18, and the stock index rose from 582 points to 926 points in three days.
< br \/ >
< br \/ >
5. The fifth time: 1996.1-1997.5 512-1510
< br \/ >
At the beginning of 1996, the Chinese stock market has been in the bear for too long, many stocks have fallen to the extreme, but after the Spring Festival, the policy is favorable, the central bank has repeatedly introduced interest rate reduction policy, the capital of securities brokerages began to be comfortable, and various funds began to build orderly positions on high-quality stocks.
< br \/ >
The fifth bull market started, advocating excellent performance began to become the mainstream investment concept, Sichuan Changhong and Shenzhen Development stock price more than three times. The market was so hot that management could not stop the index from rising even after 12 consecutive gold MEDALS. Stock speculation has become a hot topic, and everyone has opened an account to enter.
< br \/ >
The Shanghai stock market has surged from more than 500 points at the beginning of the year to 1,250 points; The Shenzhen stock market has gone even crazier, surging from more than 900 points at the start of the year to 4,200 points. The stock market has been out of the bull market in 1996, known as the \"quasi-golden age\" of China's stock market.
< br \/ >
< br \/ >
6. The sixth time: 1999.5-2001.6 1047-2245
< br \/ >
This bull market is known as the \"5.19\" market.
< br \/ >
An editorial in the People's Daily on May 19 pointed out that China's stock market will have great development and investors are eager to enter the market. Internet stocks are flourishing. Listed companies are busy on the Internet, whether true or false, as long as the name touches the word digital or network, the stock price will skyrocket. This continued until 2001.
< br \/ >
7, the seventh time: 2005.5-2007.10 998-6124
< br \/ >
In May 2005, the reform of non-tradable shares was launched, a large number of open-ended funds were issued, and the appreciation expectation of the Chinese currency brought about excess liquidity of domestic funds, and funds fully entered the market. Since 2006, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have stepped out of a round of explosive and magnificent bull market, 2000,3000,4000,5000,6000...... It's hard not to get excited.
< br \/ >
On the evening of May 29, 2007, the Ministry of Finance announced that the stamp duty would be increased to 3 per thousand from 30. The stock market experienced the so-called 530 plunge. The maximum decline in 5 days reached 21.49%, and then rebounded strongly, all the way to 6124 points.
< br \/ >
8, the eighth: 2008.11-2009.7 1664-3478 points
< br \/ >
On November 11, 2008, the Chinese government announced a 4 trillion yuan investment plan. With the four trillion investment policy and the revitalization plan of ten major industries, the A-share market has set off A new round of great bull market.
< br \/ >
< br \/ >
9. The ninth time: 2014.7-2015.6 2054-5178
< br \/ >
Under the role of \"policy support fund promotion\
< br \/ >
Since 1990, the bull is short and the bear is long, which is indescribably bitter. The policy nature of A shares, investors to retail investors blindly follow the trend has always been our weakness. However, our market is more and more mature, the stock index is no longer as volatile as before, and the supervision is more and more reasonable and strict. It will take time for us to become a mature capital market.
< br \/ >
I am Brother Xin, thank you for your support!
Our country's stock market is characterized by short bulls and long bears, and more retail investors. Our big A shares only had the first stock trading counter in 1986, while the United States began to operate in 1811, a difference of more than 100 years, so our Chinese stock market is not so mature compared with the United States stock market. With the continuous development, China's stock market is becoming more and more standardized, more and more mature, I believe that one day will be like the US stock market, bull long bear short.
The Chinese stock market has experienced several bull markets, namely:
The first bull market: In 1996, the Shanghai Index rose from 512 points to 1510 points, an increase of 195%
The second bull market: In 1999, it rose from 1047 to 2245, an increase of 114%
The third bull market: In 2005, from 998 points to 6124 points, an increase of 513%
The fourth bull market: In 2008, it rose from 1664 to 3478 points, an increase of 109%
The fifth bull market: in 2014, it rose from 2,050 points to 5178 points, an increase of 153%
< br \/ >
Every bull market is very big, which is why people in the streets of the bull market are talking about the stock market, and even friends who don't usually ask about stocks are running to recommend stocks. To the bull market almost buy up, feeling that everyone can become a stock god. However, few people can make money in the bull market, the reason is that when everyone realizes that it is a bull market, in fact, the bull market has almost ended, and at this time, it is likely to buy at the high point and be deeply trapped.
This is what Warren Buffett said: \"I am fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.\" When people are buying wildly in a bull market, it's actually a dangerous time.
< br \/ >
What is the use of knowing the time of the bull market?
1. It can be seen from the bull market in the past years that the bull market in China's stock market generally occurs once every five years or so.
Note that it is about 5 years, not a definite 5 years. Everything has a cycle, the stock market is the same, bull and bear conversion. We know that after this cycle, it is not to seize the bull market, because no one can predict the specific time of the bull market, but to sow the seeds in the bear market and harvest the bull market.
< br \/ >
No matter how miserable the bear is, the bull market is bound to come.
The stock market bear is really annoying and doubts life, but no matter how long the stock market bear, the bull market will certainly come.
In the bear market when others fear, it is the time to pick up cheap, but for ordinary investors, want to find those valuable undervalued stocks is still a little difficult, it is recommended that investors invest in the relatively low valuation of the index fund, through the way of fixed investment, in the bull market to accumulate enough cheap chips, bull market to obtain better returns.
For ordinary people, a little to learn some knowledge of fund investment, investment in stock funds, in the long run can achieve an annual return of about 10%.
It's been more than five years since the last bull market ended, and the bull market is getting closer. Now the CSI 300 index fund, the CSI 500 index fund valuation is quite cheap, and now is a good time to invest.
Risk tips: The stock market is risky, it is best to learn before investing, the above is for reference only.
A-share is A cyclical market where there is a bear and there is a bull market after every bear market. If all the big and small bull and bear markets are counted out, then A shares have experienced a total of 11 bull and bear markets in 29 years.
1) The Xiongniu market of A-shares 11 times in 29 years are:
The first bull market: December 19, 1990 to May 26, 1992
The first bear market: May 26, 1992 - November 17, 1992
The Second bull market: November 17, 1992 - February 16, 1993
The Second Bear Market: February 16, 1993 to July 29, 1994
The third bull market: July 29, 1994 - September 13, 1994
The Third Bear market: September 13, 1994 - May 17, 1995
The fourth bull market: May 18, 1995 - May 22, 1995
The fourth Bear market: May 22, 1995 to January 19, 1996
The fifth bull market: January 19, 1996 - May 12, 1997
The fifth Bear market: May 12, 1997 to May 18, 1999
The sixth bull market: May 19, 1999 to June 14, 2001
The sixth Bear market: June 14, 2001 to June 6, 2005
The seventh bull market: June 6, 2005 to October 16, 2007
The Seventh Bear market: October 16, 2007 to October 28, 2008
The eighth bull market: October 29, 2008 to August 4, 2009
The eighth bear market: August 5, 2009 to July 21, 2014
The ninth bull market: July 22, 2014 to June 12, 2015
The Ninth Bear market: June 12, 2015 to present
Of course, these 11 bull bear markets actually contain most of the \"large level rebound\
2) The four major A-share Xiong Niu markets in 29 years are:
The first round from the Shanghai index opened, from 100 points to 1429 points;
The second round of full bull bear market, 325 points of the large level bear market rose to 2245 points of the big bull market;
The third round of the complete bull bear market, the 998 points of the large level bear market rose to 6124 points of the big bull market;
The fourth round of complete bull bear market, 1849 points of the large level bear market rose to 5178 points of the big bull market;
At present, the fifth round of bear market has begun, from 5178 points fell 2440 points, the future bull market......
3) How long have these major bull markets in history lasted?
The first bull market started at 100 points in 1991 and rose to 1429 points in about a year;
The second wave of 325 points of the big bull market started, to the end of the big bull market of 2245 points, A total of about 7 years, which is also the longest bull market in the history of A shares;
The third wave of the bull market started from 998 points and rose all the way to 6124 points, which took nearly two and a half years;
The fourth wave of the bull market started from 1849 points, rose to 5178 points, took 2 years;
The fifth round of the bull market, which started at 2440, has not finished.......
The A-share market has experienced five bull markets since 1991.
Several of the bull market A rose more than 200%, including the 2007 super bull market in 550 trading days rose more than 6 times.
4) How do individual stocks perform in bull markets?
I looked at the performance of individual stocks in the two bull markets in the last 10 years as a data reference:
The rise span of individual stocks in each bull market is calculated according to the data
From 998 in 2005 to 6124 in 2007, there were 1,288 stocks that rose more than 100%, accounting for 88% of the 1,471 listed companies!
From 998 in 2005 to 6124 in 2007, there were 949 stocks that rose more than 300%! 65% of the 1,471 listed companies at the time!
From 998 in 2005 to 6124 in 2007, the number of stocks that rose more than 500% was as high as 670! That's 46% of the 1,471 listed companies at the time!
From 998 in 2005 to 6124 in 2007, there were 323 stocks that rose more than 1000%. 22% of the 1,471 listed companies at the time!
In December 2012, the GEM was launched at 585 points, and by the end of 2015, the number of stocks with an increase of more than 100% reached 2,437, accounting for 89% of 2,744 listed companies! That's up 1% from 88% in 2007!
In December 2012, the GEM started at 585 points, and ended at 5178 points in Shanghai in 2015, with an increase of more than 500% reaching 422 stocks, accounting for 15% of 2,744 listed companies!
5) In a bull market, where are big stocks most likely to appear?
Ten times the shares produced in each bull market are concentrated in companies newly listed since the peak of the previous bull market.
1) Ten times of the cattle stocks in 1999-2001 were concentrated in the secondary new stocks listed after the end of the previous round of 1996-1997 bull market;
2) Ten times the stocks in the bull market of 2005-2007 were concentrated in the secondary stocks listed after the end of the previous bull market of 1999-2001;
3) Ten times the stocks in the bull market from 2013 to 2015 were listed after 2010, and there was A rise in A-shares around 2010 (although it did not reach the status of bull stocks).
Then calculated in this way, if 2020-2021 is the next wave of bull market, then the new shares listed in 2017-2018 are more likely to appear 10 times larger stocks!
The industry in each bull market:
In the bull market of 1996-1997, ten times the stock was mainly in the light industry;
During the 2005-2007 bull market, tenfold shares were in industries dominated by heavy industry;
During the 2013-2015 bull market, ten times the stocks were in industries dominated by information technology.
At present, in the transition stage from industrial maturity to mass consumption, industrial upgrading and consumption upgrading are key clues to find growth opportunities. In the next bull market at 2440 points, 5G, technology, and large consumption may be the industry where the future bull stocks are located.
6) The starting characteristics of a bull market!
From the perspective of P\/E ratio and P\/B ratio, the starting characteristics of the bull market
On January 18, 1996, when the Shanghai Composite Index was 512 points, the average price-earnings ratio was about 19.44 times, the average price-book ratio was about 2.44 times, and then rose to the second historical high of 2245 points on June 14, 2001.
On May 24, 2005, after the death of the Shanghai Composite Index of 998 points, the average price-earnings ratio was about 15.87 times, the average price-book ratio was about 1.7 times, and then it soared to the third all-time high of 6124 points on October 16, 2007.
On October 27, 2008, the Shanghai Composite Index was 1664 points, with an average price-earnings ratio of about 14.24 times and an average price-to-book ratio of about 1.95 times, and then rose slightly to 3478 points on August 4, 2009.
On June 25, 2013, the Shanghai Composite Index was 1849 points, with an average price-earnings ratio of about 10.16 times and an average price-to-book ratio of about 1.35 times, and then rose sharply to 5178 points on June 12, 2015.
When the A-share is near 2440 points, the price-earnings ratio of A-share is 12.48 times, ranking 305th in the historical month, and is in the quantile position of 91.04% of historical data; The price-to-book ratio is about 1.26 times, falling below the lowest point of all major bear markets in history, becoming the lowest position in 29 years!
From the perspective of policy bottom and market bottom, the starting characteristics of a bull market:
Historical data, from the policy bottom to the market bottom, from the policy bottom to the bull market distance
In 2005, stamp duty was reduced, the policy bottom was 1187 points, the market bottom was 998 points, and the subsequent bull market rose to 6124 points!
In 2008, the unilateral levy of stamp duty, and several interest rate cuts and reductions in the reserve ratio, the policy bottom of 1895, the market bottom of 1664 before the official bottom success, the subsequent bull market rose to 3478 points!
In 2012, the IPO was suspended, the QFII share was expanded, and the restrictions on the establishment of public funds were relaxed. The policy bottom was 1949, the market bottom was 1849, and the subsequent bull market rose to 5178 points!
In 2018, the state rescue of the market is imminent, in order to avoid a liquidity crisis and prevent the risk of equity pledge, the policy bottom of 2449 points was established, and soon, the market bottom of 2440 points is also ready, and then entered the road to a bull market.
finally sum up
In fact, we can find that although there are many uncertainties and greater risks in A-shares, there are certain certainties. That is, for A-shares, every large-level bear market will be followed by A large-level bull market, which is the so-called certainty of A-shares.
Good investors can base their investments on such certainty. As Lin Yuan says, \"My secret to investing is not only certainty, but certainty!!\"
A good investor can anticipate what might happen in the future, but not necessarily know when. Focus on the \"what,\" not the \"when.\" If the \"what\" judgment is correct, then there is no need to worry too much about the \"when\".
Bull markets blow bubbles, bear markets squeeze bubbles; Sooner or later the bubble will burst, the bubble will eventually squeeze clean, repeat. But no matter what the market is doing, identifying the stock you know will make money and holding it firmly will win the day. A stock may rise only 10% of the time, and the remaining 90% of the time it is either correcting or falling. It would only be sad if you owned the stock for 90% of the time and sold out before the last 10% because you couldn't stand the 'long grind.'
It's a year in the distant future
Hello, my friends!
China's stock market was established in 1990 and began trading, and it has been established for 29 years this year. In this process, China's stock market has had about four systematic bull markets. Let's introduce the characteristics and characteristics of these four great bull markets.
The first bull market, the Shanghai index opened
Since we ushered in the Shanghai Index opening board, the first bull market came into being. At that time, the stock price was very cheap and obviously had the characteristics of low valuation. At that time, the stock company was very cheap to sell the stock price, but there were still not many people to buy. Therefore, the stock valuation at that time was very low, and the low valuation caused the stock market to open, and the Shanghai Stock Index began a bull market.
The first bull market started from December 19, 1990, when the point was 100 points, to May 26, 1992, the Shanghai Composite Index reached 1429 points, according to the index, a wild rise of 14 times, which opened the first wave of the first great bull market in our stock market. Then, the stock market fell, and by November 1992, fell to 387 points, and then began to rise again, starting the second wave of the first bull market, rising to an even higher high of 1559 points by February 1993.
This bull market is mainly caused by low valuation of the big bull market, the stock market has such a significant money-making effect, but also attracted many investors began to enter the market trading.
The second bull market, the bull market brought about by the reform of the trading system
The second bull market is the bull market brought about by the reform of the trading system. It rose from 326 points in 1994 to 2,245 points in June 2001.
At that time, in order to avoid the risk of big ups and downs, since 1995, the A-share trading system of all Shanghai and Shenzhen stocks has been reformed, from the trading system of T 0 and no rise or fall limit, to the current trading system of T 1, with A daily 10% rise or fall limit. Such a trading system makes the stock market rise and fall more limited, and such a system better protects the interests of stock market investors.
Such institutional dividends made the stock market slowly start from the lowest point of 326 points in 1994, go out of the 7-year slow bull trend, and rise to the highest point of 2245 points in June 2001. It can be seen that this bull market, the Shanghai index rose nearly 6 times.
This great bull market also made a lot of people make a lot of money.
The third bull market, the bull market brought about by the reform of non-tradable shares
The third bull market is brought about by the policy dividend of the reform of non-tradable shares. From 998 points in June 2005 to a high of 6124 points on October 16, 2007, the Shanghai Composite Index soared fivefold. This bull market can be said that many people remember, because many stocks at that time have doubled more than ten times, and even more stocks.
This bull market, many participants have made a lot of money, in the bull market that lasted more than two years, it can be said that many people have been very enthusiastic to speculate. However, the last one at the highest point at that time may not be unhooked now.
The fourth bull market, the bull market brought about by financing leverage
The fourth bull market is the bull market brought by financing leverage, so many people call it leverage bull. At that time, from 1849 points in June 2013 to 5178 points on June 12, 2015, the market surged by 180%. This stock market rise, although the market looks up not too much, but many stocks are still up more than ten times, or even more, so many people in this market earn a lot.
However, in the later stage of the market, there are still many people who increase leverage, and there are also many people who have lost their money in the end.
summarize
Our stock market has been going through 29 years, and there have been four very big markets in the middle, and there will be a big bull market every 7 years or so on average. In such a big bull market, if you seize the opportunity, a big bull market is done, it is possible that the asset can be doubled several times.
However, there are really not many investors who can seize the opportunity to get rich in the great bull market. Therefore, if you really want to seize the opportunity in the stock market and make yourself rich, you still need to adhere to value investment and long-term holding at ordinary times, so that you can make your state of mind stable, but also to make yourself less risky, but also to obtain more stable returns.
Thanks for reading!
If you like my views, you are welcome to follow me, and you are also welcome to join my free investment circle for further communication. Welcome to comment, like, follow!
From the end of 1990 to the beginning of 2019, China's stock market has experienced five bull markets (2008-2009 sharp rebound) in about 28 years, including 1991-1993, 1996-1997, 1999-2001, 2006-2007 and 2014-2015. Expect a bull market every 4-5 years.
In the Chinese stock market bull short bear mayor, want to profit in our country's secondary market is bound to seize the bull market to earn more, bear bear less losses. So how to seize the opportunity to make money during the transition period?
Looking at the trend of recent bull markets, we can verify a conclusion. Next we introduce the bull market three wave.
The first paragraph: at the end of the bear market, the trend of such stocks is generally inconsistent with the market at the end of the bear market, although the trend is not too strong, but the slow bull gain is stable, and the essential characteristic is small cap stocks with high performance growth.
The second paragraph: in the middle of the bull market, the market is active, a large amount of funds enter the stock market, and the leverage is increased, resulting in a sharp increase in the profit level of major securities brokerages and a sharp increase in various IPO listed companies. At this time, we should focus on brokerage stocks and look for leading stocks in the brokerage sector.
The third stage: late bull market, early bear market. At this time, we did not feel a big drop in the market, but many people around who do not understand stocks want to invest in stocks, which means that the bull market has entered the end, and the price bubble of small stocks is far away from hedge funds, at this time should switch strategies to buy blue chips such as Kweichow Moutai, Gree Electric Appliances, China Ping An and so on.
Having covered the three stages, let's analyze the details of each stage. The first wave of each bull market is a new face, the first few times may be chemical stocks or technology stocks, etc., seize the first wave of the whole cycle to reach 10 times the return, but this is the stage is the most difficult to grasp, they basically have nothing to do with the market. Many of the best stocks of late have moved out of the early stages of this phase.
The second stage is relatively easy, there are currently 42 securities stocks, throw out the poor performance of the stock and some problems, lock the remaining securities stocks can be.
The third wave brainless blue chip stocks can be, the above-mentioned Kweichow Moutai, Gree Electric Appliances, China Ping An and so on.
The above three bands all seize, the entire bull market yield of 10-15 times or so, if the above do not understand can directly do blue chip stocks such as Moutai. The focus is on the timing and the sensitivity of the market, try not to do a single basket of votes in each round, small capital 5 votes, large capital 10 votes or so. Looking at the whole, the first wave is the hardest, and the second two waves are easier. In addition, under the background of 2020, China has fully entered a well-off society, and I hope that all shareholders can successfully seize the three-wave market, prepare for the bull market during the bear market, and make substantial profits in the bull market.
Still wait for 50 years A shares are like now le a B look, do not believe that walking coke, our generation may be unable to see
Property prices have risen tenfold since 2007. In 2007, the stock market fell from 6,124 points to less than 3,000 points, and the average stock price fell by 85%, which is still in a major bear market
China's stock market began in 1990, and it has A history of nearly 30 years. In these 30 years, there have been many bull markets in the A-share market, and many investors have realized their desire to become rich overnight in the bull market. There are not A few big bull markets in A share, but there are still many small bull markets. The bull market before '95 was a crazy bull market, but the problem with age was that I only heard about it. But the bull market before '95 was not so clear, and the bull market after' 95 is much clearer.
1, two reform bull markets of A shares, A leverage bull.
In 1995, the A-share trading system was reformed, from the trading system with no price limit on the T-0, to the current trading system with A 10% price limit on the T-1. The reform of the trading system in 1995 brought about A five-year slow bull market for A-shares, in which the Shanghai Index rose four times and the Shenzhen component index rose nearly seven times. This is the first reform of the A-share cattle, this time the reform of the trading system has been used until now.
The reform of non-tradable shares in 2005. The bull market of institutional reform trading in 2001 ended, and A-shares were in A declining bear market until 2005. In 2005, the reform of non-tradable shares ushered in A reform bull again, the bull market from 2006 to the end of 2007, more than a year, the Shanghai index rose 600%, Shenzhen component index rose more than 600%. This bull market is the largest bull market in the A-share market, even the 15-year bull market has failed to break through the high point in 2007.
'14 A-share leveraged bull. The bull market of 14-15 years came after A long period of decline and long-term accumulation of A-shares. From 2008 to 2014, A-shares were in A bear market, and A long-term decline will inevitably lead to a bull market in A-shares again. Because the bull market of 14-15 years had too many investors, the investment institutions used leverage so this bull market is called leverage bull.
2, A narrow range of bull market.
The big rebound in 2008 was A narrow bull market for A-shares, because of the country's 4 trillion yuan rescue plan, both the Shanghai index and the Shenzhen component index had a short period of rapid rebound after a sharp fall. Although it is only A rebound, the index has also doubled, which is also a narrow range of small bull market for A shares.
16-18 years of excellent white horse stock bull market. 15 years of sharp decline in A-shares did not appear as in 2008 A big rebound, but 16 years after two years of the Shanghai Index are in the slow rise, and the support of the slow rise of the Shanghai Index is excellent white horse stocks. Therefore, the bull market of these two years is also known as the spring of the white horse stock.
The GEM bull market. Gem is 10 years to open the board, the GEM has been in a downward trend in the two years after the opening of the board, but the bull market of the long night shift began in 12 years, two years earlier than the bull market of the main board. At that time, Zhongqing Bao, palm Fun technology and so on are the GEM bull market representative. The bull market of GEM is also A narrow bull market in the A stock market.
I am an investment view, thanks for reading, but also thanks for liking attention.
For the definition of the bull market, the industry has always been different, after all, a wave of bull market should last for how long, or how much the market index should be judged as a bull market, the industry has no clear definition. What we are more certain about the bull market is that the money-making effect is relatively strong, and investors can almost lie in the bull market cycle. But for some gains are not particularly significant, the duration of the rally is not particularly long should be defined as a bull market, for many people there is no clear criteria. However, if a wave of market continues to rise for more than a year, and the broad market index rises by more than 100%, it is indisputable that the following waves of market in the history of A-shares are judged to be bull markets:
The first bull market: December 19, 1990 - May 26, 1992
We all know that the base point of the Shanghai Composite Index is 100 points, and after the establishment of A-shares in 1990, the lowest point of 96.05 points appeared on December 19, 1990, and with the establishment of the stock market, some prophetic investors smelled the opportunity of this market and began to invest heavily. At the same time, because the market transaction was not particularly active, The trading system is not particularly perfect, the stock market is in the experimental stage, and the speculative atmosphere is vividly reflected in this stage, so in about a year and a half, the market reached the highest point of 1429 points, an increase of 1380%, forming the first bull market of A shares.
However, in the five years from 1992 to 1996, although the index fluctuation is very large, but because each wave of market duration is not long, it is a flash in the pan, so it can not be strictly defined as a bull market.
The second bull market: January 19, 1996 - May 12, 1997
(512~1510) (17 months, 194%) After the end of the first wave of bull market, the following five years, the market volatility is very violent, and the trading system has also changed a lot during this period, and the market speculation is strong, resulting in market volatility is irregular, but from January 19, 1996, the issuance of new shares began to suspend. After the introduction of this good news, the market began to gather funds, and after the first five years of speculation, the market gradually began to pursue value investment stocks, resulting in the next 17 months, the Shanghai Composite Index rose from 512 points to 1510 points, an increase of up to 194%, forming a strict sense of the A-share second bull market.
The third bull market: May 19, 1999 - June 14, 2001
After 1999, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index began to run above 1000 points for a long time. At the same time, after the Asian financial crisis, the economy began to recover, especially the era of network technology began, and the global technology stocks started a crazy rising mode. At this stage, as long as the listed companies in the A-share market are related to technology, they can be sought after by funds and rise wildly. This wave of technology-led market has lasted for more than two years, and the index finally broke through 2000 points in 2001, the highest impact to 2245 points, an increase of 114%, becoming a share veritable third wave of bull market.
The fourth bull market: June 6, 2005 - October 16, 2007
After the peak in 2001, the market experienced a bear market cycle for four consecutive years, and the Shanghai Composite Index finally fell to 998 points. After the 21st century, it fell below 1000 points for the first time. Subsequently, the reform of non-structure of shares was launched, a large number of open-end funds were issued, and the expectation of yuan appreciation was superimposed, and a large number of funds poured into the market, driven by incremental funds. Opened a wave of more than two and a half years of the market, continued until October 16, 2007, the index reached a maximum of 6124 points, only because of the impact of the US subprime crisis, this wave of bull market is the final result, it can be said that this wave of bull market until this year is also the longest lasting, the most magnificent wave of bull market, the highest point of the index was born in this wave of bull market. And it hasn't been broken so far.
The fifth bull market: March 12, 2014 - June 12, 2015
This is the closest bull market to us, and this bull market is also known as leverage bull. Due to the large use of off-market allocation and margin financing funds, as well as the rapid spread of news, once the market rebounds strongly after years of continuous decline, the market money-making effect will open, the news transmission will accelerate, and the market will see a rapid influx of incremental funds. This bull market lasted for more than a year or so, the highest impact to 5178 points and then with the regulation of capital allocation, requiring the impact of reducing leverage, the index fell rapidly, and the bull market finally came to an abrupt end.
Finally, from June 2015 to the present, and experienced more than 4 years of bear market adjustment, from the A-share bull and bear conversion cycle, the next wave of bull market is also getting closer to us, but also remind investors to keep enough expectations for the next wave of bull market.
Since its inception, China's stock market has experienced six major bull markets and ushered in seven major bear markets. I began to pay attention to the stock market in June 2001, that in many bull market, the most impressive there are two: First, June 2005 to October 2007 bull market, from 998 all the way to 6124 points, not only this round of bull market growth space is huge, because before also experienced four years of bear market.
Second, from March 12, 2014 to June 12, 2015, the round lasted only one year and three months, and the stock market rose only 162%. The reason why people remember, mainly from the beginning of this bull market, the stock market really entered the era of leverage, before the investors are using their own money to invest in stocks, from that time on, investors can also through the over-the-counter allocation of capital to invest in stocks. At the same time, this bear market has been a long time, and has not yet come out of the trough, and the stock market will continue to find the bottom of the road in the future.
There have been six major bull markets in A-shares, they are: the first bull market: December 19, 1990 to May 26, 1992; The second bull market: January 19, 1996 to May 12, 1997; The third bull market: May 19, 1999 to June 14, 2001; The fourth bull market: June 6, 2005 to October 16, 2007 (two-and-a-half years, 513%); The fifth bull market: October 28, 2008 to August 4, 2009; The sixth bull market: March 12, 2014 to June 12, 2015 (one year, three months, 162%);
Similarly, the size of the bear market is also seven times, they are: the first bear market: May 26, 1992 to November 17, 1992; The second bear market: February 16, 1993 - July 29, 1994; The third bear market: May 12, 1997 - May 18, 1999; The fourth bear market: June 14, 2001 - June 6, 2005 (2245-998)(more than four years, -55.5%); The fifth bear market: October 16, 2007 ~ October 28, 2008; The sixth bear market: August 4, 2009 - December 4, 2012; The Seventh Bear market: June 12, 2015 to date.
In fact, if you look at the rotation of the A-share market, the majority of investors can not see what rules. However, if you carefully summarize, there are still some rules to be found in the A-share market: First of all, the biggest feature of the A-share market is the bull short bear long, the bull market is longer than two years, the short is less than one year, and the bear market is at least two years and at most four years. So, A is going down most of the time.
So why are the bulls short and the bears long? There are two reasons: First, the bull market in China's stock market is rarely value-driven, mostly money-driven, driven by funds, rather than value discovery, of course, it is difficult to long-term bull. Second, most of the A-shares have only speculative value and no investment value. If the value investment chips can still be fixed, but if the market is started by speculation, then the valuation of the stock deviates from the reasonable valuation, and there is a demand for the stock price to return to the reasonable range at any time.
Moreover, bull markets rise fast and bear markets fall slowly. This is mainly the bull market in the process of rising, in order to save sentiment and peripheral funds into the market, the main institutions can only desperately pull up the stock index, only the money-making effect, there are a large number of investors into the market, because the main institutions \"will not be long-term\
Finally, after each cycle of bulls and bears, investors are always unable to escape the top of the bull market to pick up goods at the top of the bear market at the bottom of the pain to cut meat, which is what happens in all the cycles of bulls and bears. The reason is that the main force is to ship at a high level, which attracts retail investors to come in and receive goods at a high price. In order to attract funds at the bottom of the bear market, it is necessary to repeatedly shock and shake out the investors' chips. Therefore, the bulls and bears return in a few years, and the shareholders receive goods at a high level, and the low cut meat has not changed.
Three times. 1996, 2005, 2014. The next launch is in 2023.
There have been 11 bull markets in the Chinese stock market, including all kinds of big and small calves and super bulls, especially the bull markets in 2007 and 2015 are memorable, and the other bull markets are not too volatile.
However, the bear market cycle is very long, from 2008 to 2013 experienced 4-5 years of adjustment, and the market is still hovering at a low level since 2015.
There were six bull runs in which the market moved more than 100%.
The stock market ushered in a total of six major bull market:
The first bull market: December 19, 1990 to May 26, 1992 (a year and a half later, 1380%);
The second bull market: January 19, 1996 to May 12, 1997 (17 months, 194%);
The third bull market: May 19, 1999 to June 14, 2001 (more than two years, 114%);
The fourth bull market: June 6, 2005 to October 16, 2007 (two-and-a-half years, 513%);
The fifth bull market: October 28, 2008 to August 4, 2009 (more than nine months, 109%);
The sixth bull market: March 12, 2014 to June 12, 2015 (one year, three months, 162%);
The shortest of the six bull markets was nine months from October 28, 2008, to August 4, 2009, and the longest was two and a half years from June 6, 2005, to October 16, 2007.
There were seven major bear markets in the stock market:
The first bear market: May 26, 1992 - November 17, 1992 (1429-386)(half a year, -73%);
The second bear market: February 16, 1993 - July 29, 1994 (1558-325)(17 months, -79%);
The third bear market: May 12, 1997 - May 18, 1999 (1510-1025)(two years, -33%);
The fourth bear market: June 14, 2001 - June 6, 2005 (2245-998)(more than four years, -55.5%);
The fifth bear market: October 16, 2007 - October 28, 2008 (6124-1664)(one year, -73%);
The sixth bear market: August 4, 2009 to December 4, 2012 (3478 to 1949)(more than three years, -39%);
The Seventh Bear market: June 12, 2015 to date.
Among the seven bear markets, the shortest period from October 10, 200710 to October 28, 2008 lasted one year, and the longest bear market lasted from June 14, 2001 to June 6, 2005 for four years
The market began on June 12, 2015, and has lasted four years so far, which has reached the time point for adjustment according to the longest bear market in history.
In short: every bear market is longer than the bull market cycle, every bull market is fast, bear market slow fall, which is also the problem of the market trading mechanism, when the money is crazy to buy, fall after retail slowly cut meat, bear long bull short market is difficult to end.
There have only been two really big bull markets, one in 2008 and one in 2014-2015.
< br \/ >
Why do you say that? Because although there was a big bull market in the previous several times, the number of participants was actually limited, the market rules were chaotic and speculative. And the number of stocks on the market is actually very limited. Corporate profitability and so on are not so good. Around 2001, the number of stocks was more than 1,000, and in 2019, it has risen to about 3,600, which is more valuable for reference from the perspective of industry integration or market value.
In terms of magnitude, there have been four real bull markets
< br \/ >
The first time is the most insignificant, but indeed the most violent, in just one or two years, the index rose from 100 points to 1,300 points.
The second time is relatively long, from 325 points to about 2100 points, the increase is also more surprising, and the speed is relatively slow.
The third time was in 2007, when it rose from 1,000 to more than 6,000;
The fourth time was in 2015, when it rose from around 2,000 points to more than 5,000 points.
Every 10 years is a wave. 94 ~ 96\/04 ~ 06\/14 ~ 16. There is little basis for a rally.
China's stock market began in 1990, and it has A history of nearly 30 years. In these 30 years, there have been many bull markets in the A-share market, and many investors have realized their desire to become rich overnight in the bull market. There are not A few big bull markets in A share, but there are still many small bull markets. The bull market before '95 was a crazy bull market, but the problem with age was that I only heard about it. But the bull market before '95 was not so clear, and the bull market after' 95 is much clearer.
< p >
1, two reform bull markets of A shares, A leverage bull.
In 1995, the A-share trading system was reformed, from the trading system with no price limit on the T-0, to the current trading system with A 10% price limit on the T-1. The reform of the trading system in 1995 brought about A five-year slow bull market for A-shares, in which the Shanghai Index rose four times and the Shenzhen component index rose nearly seven times. This is the first reform of the A-share cattle, this time the reform of the trading system has been used until now.
The reform of non-tradable shares in 2005. The bull market of institutional reform trading in 2001 ended, and A-shares were in A declining bear market until 2005. In 2005, the reform of non-tradable shares ushered in A reform bull again, the bull market from 2006 to the end of 2007, more than a year, the Shanghai index rose 600%, Shenzhen component index rose more than 600%. This bull market is the largest bull market in the A-share market, even the 15-year bull market has failed to break through the high point in 2007.
'14 A-share leveraged bull. The bull market of 14-15 years came after A long period of decline and long-term accumulation of A-shares. From 2008 to 2014, A-shares were in A bear market, and A long-term decline will inevitably lead to a bull market in A-shares again. Because the bull market of 14-15 years had too many investors, the investment institutions used leverage so this bull market is called leverage bull.
2, A narrow range of bull market.
The big rebound in 2008 was A narrow bull market for A-shares, because of the country's 4 trillion yuan rescue plan, both the Shanghai index and the Shenzhen component index had a short period of rapid rebound after a sharp fall. Although it is only A rebound, the index has also doubled, which is also a narrow range of small bull market for A shares.
16-18 years of excellent white horse stock bull market. 15 years of sharp decline in A-shares did not appear as in 2008 A big rebound, but 16 years after two years of the Shanghai Index are in the slow rise, and the support of the slow rise of the Shanghai Index is excellent white horse stocks. Therefore, the bull market of these two years is also known as the spring of the white horse stock.
The GEM bull market. Gem is 10 years to open the board, the GEM has been in a downward trend in the two years after the opening of the board, but the bull market of the long night shift began in 12 years, two years earlier than the bull market of the main board. At that time, Zhongqing Bao, palm Fun technology and so on are the GEM bull market representative. The bull market of GEM is also A narrow bull market in the A stock market.
-- This answer is organized by Xi 'an Dingang digital currency intelligent quantitative automatic currency speculation robot (diachronic income, data verification, live broadcast) company.
I think there have only been two major bull markets in the Chinese stock market, and the third super bull market has started since January 2019. The first major bull market in China's stock market was the rise of the Shanghai Composite Index from 1,000 points in June 2006 to 6,000 points in October 2007. In April 2007, China Ping An, just listed, was 45 yuan to buy, to October became 139 yuan, I sold. The second great bull market rose from 1850 points in the Shanghai Composite Index in June 2014 to 5,000 points in June 2015. In 2014, I bought the Agricultural Bank of China, bought for 2.50 yuan, and sold for 4.01 yuan in January 2015. Changed to Shandong medicine glass is 15 years to buy in January, 12 yuan 5 to buy, to sell in June 24 yuan. My habit for many years was to have a full position in one stock. In the middle period of China, I bought it on August 12, 2017, and I have not sold it until today. I believe that China will successfully restructure in the medium term and gain excess returns, so I have been insisting on full holdings. I believe that the great bull market in the Chinese stock market has started in 2019, with the first target at around 3600 and the second target at around 4200. Internationalization of RMB, internationalization of Chinese stock market. The super bull market that started in 2019 is the longest bull market in China's history, with an end target of around 12,000 points. Let's witness the brilliance of China's stock market.
The 13th Bull market 2444^3200. The 14th Bull market 2200~3800